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Over the next seven weeks this from Guido and others like it are going to be a key part for those following and betting on the LAB leadership contest.
For we are nearly two months away from ballots going out — this is stage cleopatra slot online free of gathering the nominations simply in order to be able to proceed to the next stage.
The leadership hopefuls have got to persuade 22 of their MP colleagues to back their bid by next Monday in order to make the second stage — securing nominations from constituency parties and trade unions.
It is only after that second stage that this free slot ladbrokes to a postal ballot.
At the moment Starmer seems to be having most success with Long-Bailey and Lewis struggling.
free chips poker goodgame we get to the constituency party and trade union stage it might be a different story.
Clearly Starmer is going to get the MP nominations.
The big question could be how easy it will be picking free slot ladbrokes the required number of constituency ones and that could be the story that takes us through to free slot ladbrokes end of February.
With Long-Bailey it will be the other way round No doubt similar spreadsheets will be produced when constituency free slot ladbrokes and trade unions are the ones doing the nominating.
Those MPs who opposed Corbyn in 2016 have a blue background while those who backed Corbyn have a red one on table.
How far this is the case we will have to wait and see.
The first objective of would be leaders is to get 22+ nominations from fellow MPs.
It is the former where not getting access to membership data might be challenging.
So those MPs who secure enough backing from MPs might still be barred from going on the postal ballot if they fail the local party or trade union test.
The ballot opens on February 21st and will close on April 2nd which seems an extraordinary long period of time.
Surely this can all be wrapped in in 2-3 weeks?
Over the weekend we have seen a fair bit of the prospective successors to Corbyn as LAB leader of which five have already declared.
An excellent profile on her in the yesterday raised questions about how long she has actually been a member of the party.
Her article in the Guardian last week, as was widely noted, hardly a full-blooded pitch for the job.
She seemed very reticent.
On Betfair Long-Bailey is currently the second favourite rated as a 20% chance.
Boundary changes would see the Conservative majority at the next election and if Labour choose electoral Ebola in the form of Ian Lavery then this bet looks like a winner.
Will they be a Corbyn clone or chose a leader who will move to centre ground where Labour have won majorities in the last forty six years?
This was a fairly obvious shot at Jeremy Corbyn who went into the 2019 GE as the with the worst ratings of any major party leader of the last 45 years but will also likely be a line she uses as a challenge to other leadership hopefuls.
The first thing to do was to try and establish a baseline for electoral performance, how unpopular could you be but still win.
The lowest rating by a LotO who went on to become Prime Minister is -22 by David Cameron in September 2007 before he recovered into positive territory over the next year.
So, we can take that as our first bottom point.
Next, we can take a look at the ratings of every winning party leader: Which gives us the lowest winning score of -25 by Tony Blair in 2005.
This is also the only election where the winning leader had a lower approval rating than the losing leader, Michael Howard rating at -10.
It should be noted that Howard only had 72% of respondents expressing an opinion, which is a particularly low score next lowest is 79% and the average is in the mid-80s.
Which gives us a new low score to beat with -27 for John Major in 1997.
So, we can safely say that victory is still possible with a net rating in the mid negative 20s.
But these are the scores at election time, which usually come at the end of some pretty strong improvements in LotO ratings.
It overshadows what was also a very impressive recovery by Ed Miliband who went from -44 in November of 2014 to -19 at the May 2015GE.
That sizable Mili-surgence is also the lowest score to still show a recovery back past the Major line.
The left of him is occupied only by Michael Foot and Jeremy Corbyn.
Foot first dipped under that mark by hitting -46 in November of 1981 before sliding further down while Corbyn smashed through it in February of 2019 with -55.
One last little note, the only leader listed here not to fight a general election was Iain Duncan-Smith.
He was invited to step down in the traditional Conservative way when his personal ratings in the -20s and the party was polling in the low-to-mid 30s, despite reasonable local election gains.
Since WWII the Labour party has never sacked a leader before fighting an election.
The only Labour leaders free slot ladbrokes WWI to not fight an election where John Smith who died as leader in 1994, and George Lansbury who stepped down shortly before the 1935 poker omaha free due to his pacifism causing a rift between him and the wider party.
So, the next Labour leader is probably safe until the next election whatever their score, and comebacks can come from further back than you might expect.
Clearly the seats of former Speaker Bercow and the current one Hoyle are going to appear in the lists because the main parties do not contest them.
So Buckingham had its first main party contest since 2005 while Chorley had a limited range of candidates this time.
Interesting how the three of the top five CON marginals in Bolton and Bury are almost within spitting distance of each other.
Three of the biggest LAB majorities were on Merseyside with the other two in East London.
An interesting feature that says a lot about GE2019 for the LDs that all of their five LD biggest majorities were in strong Remain seats gained by the party since GE2015.
You can download the full document.
Nominations: MPs At the moment, there are four declared candidates — Clive Lewis, Lisa Nandy, Jess Phillips and Emily Thornberry — but we can expect more to formally declare.
Keir Starmer is all-but certain to run, as is at least one of Rebecca Long-Bailey and Ian Lavery, and there may be others.
Nominations: CLPs and affiliates For the first time, the 2020 election will give Constituency Labour Parties and affiliated bodies unions and socialist societies a formal role in the process.
While they made nominations in 2015 and 2016, these had only symbolic value.
This time, they matter.
My expectation would be that the big unions will either back an outright left-wing candidate or Starmer, who straddles the fence between being part of the wider Team Corbyn while also offering change.
The question here is can the likes of Jess Free slot ladbrokes gain the support of enough CLPs?
If there are similar rates of abstentions in 2020, the membership might well get only two candidates to vote on.
That said, even if there are far fewer abstaining CLPs this time, if the YouGov poll from last July is still a guide, a lot of members would actively vote against Phillips.
Neither is a good candidate: Long-Bailey is a robotic performer and her Guardian article last week was a masterpiece of meaninglessness.
On the other hand, Lavery carries as much baggage as Corbyn.
In both elections, registered supporters voted far more heavily for Corbyn than the general membership and affiliates slightly more.
We can reasonably assume that this fact will still make it hard for anyone running on any kind of significant reform agenda.
London vs the country Almost a quarter of Labour MPs now represent London — there are more of them than there are Labour MPs from the Midlands, Scotland and the rest of the South of England put together — and its membership is similarly metropolitan.
In reality, it matters greatly — not so much because of immediate Brexit policy but because of what the candidates stood for symbolises about them and about what they believe Labour should be.
Did they openly support Remain last year or did they hedge as Corbyn did?
Do they accept the mandate of the first referendum or not?
Would they seek to rejoin the EU as soon as possible or let the issue lie?
What message would they send to the millions of ex-Labour Leave voters who rejected them?
What message would they send to the millions of Remain voters who cast nose-holding tactical votes in December and for whom that reason is now redundant?
Boys vs Girls When James Callaghan was elected Labour leader, the fact that his Tory opposite number was a woman was a novelty and an oddity.
Conclusion I expect the current field to be whittled considerably.
He might well win simply for want of any meaningful alternative but if there is such an alternative — someone who can galvanise the membership as Corbyn did — then I could well see him struggle.
If she makes the ballot, and free slot ladbrokes could, then not only would her odds drop but she could go all the way.
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